先作一阶差分以消去个体效应,可得yityit1x'itit
因为yit1与it存在相关,因此我们需要进行工具变量法进行估计。因此Arellano-Bond使用了yit2以后的所有的可能滞后变量作为工具变量,进行GMM估计。但是利用Arellano-Bond的GMM会存在很多问题,比如弱工具变量问题等问题,具体看面板动态面板的教材(格林:计量经济分析或伍德里奇:面板计量与横截面数据分析)。因此为了更有效的进行面板动态分析,BlundellandBond则将yit2以后及yit2的以后作为工具变量进行估计。(1)差分GMM1.TFPCH_FCArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212115.360.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults128Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTFPCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-.2456485.0814642-3.020.003-.4053155-.0859816|FC|.0492256.02916541.690.091-.0079375.1063887Indus|.3846179.16389792.350.019.0633839.7058519Hum|-.0315287.0219917-1.430.152-.0746317.0115742Open|.3621907.13722392.640.008.0932369.6311445FDI|-.975387.516711-1.890.059-1.988122.0373479Water|.2776697.1813381.530.126-.0777464.6330857Nature|-.0406406.0438544-0.930.354-.1265936.0453125ELCT|.0153692.03614840.430.671-.0554804.0862189_cons|1.196172.19082616.270.000.82215981.570184------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TFPCHL(2/.).FCL(2/.).IndusL(2/.).HumStandard:D.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_cons上述结果中,我们可以看出Hum、Water、Nature、ELCT在10%显著水平不显著,FC的估计值为0.0492256,Prob=0.091<0.1,因此在10%显著水平是显著的,也就是说在FC变化1单位时,因变量TFPCH会变化0.0492256个单位,其他变量的解释雷同。上述结果中有WaldChi2值,这个是对所有自变量的联合检验,即除常数项以外,所有的自变量同时等于零的一个检验,结果显示Prob=0.0000<0.01,因此说明拒绝原假设,模型是稳定的。SargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(118)Prob>chi2==118.71440.4642既然利用了2期到所有滞后期的因变量作为工具变量,因此有时工具变量会产生过度识别的问题,因此我们要在进行GMM估计后进行工具变量是否有效的检验。从上述结果可以看出,原假设为所有的工具变量是有效的,给出了chi2值和Prob值,从Prob=0.4642>0.1可以看出,在10%显著水平无法拒绝原假设,因此说明工具变量是有效的。Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.87360.0041||2|-2.41830.0156|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation做面板GMM时会有一个现象,就是corr(it,it1)0,而从第2期开始后的corr(it,itk)0,k1,k2,3,....,T。因此会进行此项检验,原假设是AR(p)等于零。但是我们可以从结果看出AR(1)的Prob值小于0.01,说明拒绝原假设,也就是说满足残差一阶自相关不等于零,看AR(2)的Prob是小于0.05,也就是说残差二阶自相关性不等于零,这个不符合理论。2.TFPCH_FSArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===1321112121277.850.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults128Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTFPCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-.2555929.0770461-3.320.001-.4066005-.1045853|FS|.9174217.34066032.690.007.24973981.585104Indus|.4117254.17457012.360.018.0695742.7538766Hum|-.0307814.0213235-1.440.149-.0725747.0110119Open|.4309307.18886412.280.023.0607638.8010976FDI|-1.12599.4676488-2.410.016-2.042565-.2094152Water|.3101877.21532631.440.150-.1118442.7322196Nature|-.0481035.04468-1.080.282-.1356748.0394678ELCT|.0054378.03647990.150.882-.0660614.076937_cons|1.147268.177676.460.000.79904061.495494------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TFPCHL(2/.).FSL(2/.).IndusL(2/.).HumStandard:D.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_cons同理,除Hum、Water、Nature、ELCT在10%显著水平不显著。FS的Prob=0.007<0.01,因此在1%显著水平是显著的。这里的10%,5%,1%显著水平,是值Prob小于0.1,0.05,0.01,越小就代表越显著。形象的理解方式假设金子的纯度分为24K,18K,14K,含金量分别为99%,95%,90%。如果我认为18k才是金子,那么我检验一颗金子的纯度就要达到95%。单个系数的显著水平,是检验,其估计系数是否为零,10%,5%,1%显著,就是说明90%,95%,99%可以接受用这个模型估计出的系数是不等于零的,计量来讲最低标准是10%显著。SargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(118)Prob>chi2==118.51940.4692同理,结果显示sargan检验通过。Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.79710.0052||2|-2.44370.0145|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation同理AR(1)检验通过,AR(2)检验未通过。3.TFPCH_FEArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===132111212121511.390.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults128Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTFPCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-.2523782.0761759-3.310.001-.4016801-.1030763|FE|.1566492.29108050.540.590-.4138581.7271564Indus|.3738027.21286821.760.079-.0434114.7910167Hum|-.0176968.0243474-0.730.467-.0654169.0300233Open|.3580752.15453232.320.020.0551975.6609529FDI|-.9256396.4996116-1.850.064-1.90486.0535811Water|.2294973.1734911.320.186-.1105388.5695334Nature|-.0382365.0395784-0.970.334-.1158088.0393357ELCT|.0250281.02989260.840.402-.0335603.0836165_cons|1.109581.24083744.610.000.63754891.581614------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TFPCHL(2/.).FEL(2/.).IndusL(2/.).HumStandard:D.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_cons结果显示FE不显著,其他变量就不进行过多的解释了,和上述解释方法相同。SargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(118)Prob>chi2==122.43380.3713结果显示,sargan检验通过。Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.7910.0053||2|-2.38450.0171|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation结果显示AR(1)检验通过,AR(2)检验不通过。4.简单整理--------------------------------------------------Variable|TFPCH_FCTFPCH_FSTFPCH_FE-------------+------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-0.2456-0.2556-0.2524|-3.0154-3.3174-3.3131|FC|0.0492|1.6878Indus|0.38460.41170.3738|2.34672.35851.7560Hum|-0.0315-0.0308-0.0177|-1.4337-1.4435-0.7268Open|0.36220.43090.3581|2.63942.28172.3172FDI|-0.9754-1.1260-0.9256|-1.8877-2.4078-1.8527Water|0.27770.31020.2295|1.53121.44051.3228Nature|-0.0406-0.0481-0.0382|-0.9267-1.0766-0.9661ELCT|0.01540.00540.0250|0.42520.14910.8373FS|0.9174|2.6931FE|0.1566|0.5382_cons|1.19621.14731.1096|6.26846.45734.6072-------------+------------------------------------N|132132132chi2|115.361577.84801511.3927--------------------------------------------------legend:b/t这里用软件给出了简单的整理结果,每列代表一个模型,总共有两行数据,第一行为估计系数,第二行为t值。下面给出N(样本数),和检验模型稳定性的chi2值,也就是每个结果表里的Waldchi2值。-----------------------------------------------------------Variable|TFPCH_FCTFPCH_FSTFPCH_FE-------------+---------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-0.2456***-0.2556***-0.2524***|FC|0.0492*Indus|0.3846**0.4117**0.3738*Hum|-0.0315-0.0308-0.0177Open|0.3622***0.4309**0.3581**FDI|-0.9754*-1.1260**-0.9256*Water|0.27770.31020.2295Nature|-0.0406-0.0481-0.0382ELCT|0.01540.00540.0250FS|0.9174***FE|0.1566_cons|1.1962***1.1473***1.1096***-------------+---------------------------------------------N|132132132chi2|115.361577.84801511.3927-----------------------------------------------------------legend:*p<.1;**p<.05;***p<.01这个整理方式给出了系数和,标*的显著水平,更直观一些。5.EFFCH_FCArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212799.270.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults72Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustEFFCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|-.0563724.0936039-0.600.547-.2398327.127088|FC|.0382577.01921541.990.046.0005962.0759192Open|.0024338.14091130.020.986-.2737473.2786148FDI|-.2231609.33997-0.660.512-.8894899.4431681Water|.053977.13547560.400.690-.2115502.3195042Nature|-.0250783.0414394-0.610.545-.1062979.0561414Indus|-.0481495.1227236-0.390.695-.2886833.1923843Hum|-.0106415.020664-0.510.607-.0511423.0298593ELCT|.003833.0305740.130.900-.0560909.0637569_cons|1.126443.11219710.040.000.9065411.346345------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).EFFCHStandard:D.FCD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_cons结果显示,FC在5%显著水平显著。SargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(62)Prob>chi2==99.849930.0016结果显示sargan检验没有通过检验。Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.2440.0248||2|-1.20250.2292|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation结果显示AR(1)与AR(2)检验均通过。6.EFFCH_FSArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212210.300.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults72Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustEFFCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|-.0503534.0902091-0.560.577-.22716.1264532|FS|.6964343.31548432.210.027.07809651.314772Open|-.0178571.1445271-0.120.902-.301125.2654108FDI|-.2518357.3945175-0.640.523-1.025076.5214044Water|.1412043.12054181.170.241-.0950532.3774619Nature|-.0244.0409254-0.600.551-.1046124.0558123Indus|-.0067016.1185894-0.060.955-.2391325.2257293Hum|-.0143201.0188477-0.760.447-.051261.0226208ELCT|-.0061357.027083-0.230.821-.0592174.0469459_cons|1.081126.11402129.480.000.85764811.304603------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).EFFCHStandard:D.FSD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_cons结果显示,FS在5%显著水平显著。SargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(62)Prob>chi2==97.714580.0026结果显示sargan检验没有通过检验。Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.27480.0229||2|-1.00240.3161|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation结果显示AR(1)与AR(2)检验均通过。下面开始都是同样的解释方法,就不过多反复的写进去文字了,哪里看不懂,或者有疑问可以进行咨询。文章中说进行了系统两步法估计,但是为何这么做,根本没有给出理由,面板动态GMM,本身就分为差分GMM和系统GMM,系统GMM的优点在于他能解决弱工具变量所导致的差分GMM估计不准确,但是这个弱工具变量的检验,目前还没有检验方法,只有工具变量过度的检验,目前还没有不足的检验。而且选择差分GMM和系统GMM的另外一个方法就是看因变量的滞后一期的系数是否接近于1,如果接近于1就会产生随机游走现象,使得在差分GMM中其他变量估计系数不一致,而系统GMM就你解决这个问题,但是我们可以看出,回归结果里,没有一个因变量滞后一期的系数是接近于1的,因此我认为您参考的文章就是作者主观进行的选择,而且有很大的问题,因为在文章的结果中,有一个因变量滞后一期的系数超过1,这个在时间序列模型和面板动态分析中都是一个大忌,滞后一期的系数大于1,说明以往会对未来无限扩大化,不趋于平稳,这在实际中是不可能的事情,而且这样的结果一般会在模型设定中加入因变量滞后1期以上时才会产生这样的结果,与一般的面板动态GMM模型也不符合。因此我给出了调试过程中结果较理想的结果,并且给出了差分GMM与系统GMM的结果,您可以根据您的需求找最好的结果进行选择。7.EFFCH_FEArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212117.570.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults72Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustEFFCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|-.0522699.0959003-0.550.586-.240231.1356912|FE|.0876382.24627250.360.722-.3950472.5703235Open|.0158008.16344360.100.923-.3045427.3361442FDI|-.0640364.2895779-0.220.825-.6315987.5035259Water|.029341.14424930.200.839-.2533824.3120645Nature|-.0318949.039441-0.810.419-.1091978.0454081Indus|-.027201.1512048-0.180.857-.3235569.2691549Hum|-.0027633.025627-0.110.914-.0529913.0474647ELCT|.0098647.0323620.300.760-.0535635.073293_cons|1.057858.13669647.740.000.78993791.325778------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).EFFCHStandard:D.FED.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(62)Prob>chi2==101.50980.0012Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.24570.0247||2|-1.2330.2176|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation8.简单整理--------------------------------------------------Variable|EFFCH_FCEFFCH_FSEFFCH_FE-------------+------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|-0.0564-0.0504-0.0523|-0.6022-0.5582-0.5450|FC|0.0383|1.9910Open|0.0024-0.01790.0158|0.0173-0.12360.0967FDI|-0.2232-0.2518-0.0640|-0.6564-0.6383-0.2211Water|0.05400.14120.0293|0.39841.17140.2034Nature|-0.0251-0.0244-0.0319|-0.6052-0.5962-0.8087Indus|-0.0481-0.0067-0.0272|-0.3923-0.0565-0.1799Hum|-0.0106-0.0143-0.0028|-0.5150-0.7598-0.1078ELCT|0.0038-0.00610.0099|0.1254-0.22660.3048FS|0.6964|2.2075FE|0.0876|0.3559_cons|1.12641.08111.0579|10.03999.48187.7387-------------+------------------------------------N|132132132chi2|799.2733210.2967117.5737--------------------------------------------------legend:b/t-----------------------------------------------------------Variable|EFFCH_FCEFFCH_FSEFFCH_FE-------------+---------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|-0.0564-0.0504-0.0523|FC|0.0383**Open|0.0024-0.01790.0158FDI|-0.2232-0.2518-0.0640Water|0.05400.14120.0293Nature|-0.0251-0.0244-0.0319Indus|-0.0481-0.0067-0.0272Hum|-0.0106-0.0143-0.0028ELCT|0.0038-0.00610.0099FS|0.6964**FE|0.0876_cons|1.1264***1.0811***1.0579***-------------+---------------------------------------------N|132132132chi2|799.2733210.2967117.5737-----------------------------------------------------------legend:*p<.1;**p<.05;***p<.019.TECHCH_FCArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212348.550.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults86Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTECHCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-.2987788.0691402-4.320.000-.4342911-.1632666|FC|.0185994.06018460.310.757-.0993602.136559Open|.4844888.20487242.360.018.0829463.8860313FDI|-.7254619.2892166-2.510.012-1.292316-.1586078Water|.2880078.32940680.870.382-.3576177.9336333Nature|-.0232326.037839-0.610.539-.0973957.0509306Indus|.3123053.213481.460.143-.1061079.7307184Hum|.0059687.01472280.410.685-.0228876.0348249ELCT|-.0096952.0435137-0.220.824-.0949805.0755901_cons|1.024569.11843738.650.000.79243571.256701------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TECHCHStandard:D.FCD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(76)Prob>chi2==109.17650.0076Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.90010.0037||2|-2.92890.0034|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation10.TECHCH_FSArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212129.740.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults86Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTECHCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-.3104529.0648883-4.780.000-.4376316-.1832741|FS|.8112301.65844881.230.218-.47930592.101766Open|.4621189.20845382.220.027.0535569.8706809FDI|-.8216327.2725325-3.010.003-1.355787-.2874788Water|.3276198.32995190.990.321-.3190741.9743137Nature|-.021439.0416034-0.520.606-.1029801.0601022Indus|.3599185.17075942.110.035.0252363.6946008Hum|.0004416.02095040.020.983-.0406203.0415036ELCT|-.0175412.0449395-0.390.696-.1056209.0705386_cons|1.007294.13845097.280.000.73593561.278653------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TECHCHStandard:D.FSD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(76)Prob>chi2==108.56380.0084Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.81970.0048||2|-2.96780.0030|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation11.TECHCH_FEArellano-Bonddynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===13211121212312.090.0000Numberofinstruments=One-stepresults86Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2(Std.Err.adjustedforclusteringonid)------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTECHCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-.303878.0656385-4.630.000-.4325271-.1752289|FE|.3825858.31962221.200.231-.24386221.009034Open|.4573797.21054142.170.030.0447261.8700332FDI|-.6453928.275253-2.340.019-1.184879-.1059068Water|.163524.31617880.520.605-.4561751.7832231Nature|-.0276362.0388296-0.710.477-.1037407.0484684Indus|.4192054.23245931.800.071-.0364064.8748171Hum|.0188027.01115351.690.092-.0030578.0406632ELCT|.0063725.03512880.180.856-.0624787.0752237_cons|.8624923.18300524.710.000.50380881.221176------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TECHCHStandard:D.FED.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(76)Prob>chi2==110.1290.0064Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.8720.0041||2|-2.89170.0038|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation12.简单整理--------------------------------------------------Variable|TECHCH_FCTECHCH_FSTECHCH_FE-------------+------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-0.2988-0.3105-0.3039|-4.3213-4.7844-4.6296|FC|0.0186|0.3090Open|0.48450.46210.4574|2.36482.21692.1724FDI|-0.7255-0.8216-0.6454|-2.5084-3.0148-2.3447Water|0.28800.32760.1635|0.87430.99290.5172Nature|-0.0232-0.0214-0.0276|-0.6140-0.5153-0.7117Indus|0.31230.35990.4192|1.46292.10781.8033Hum|0.00600.00040.0188|0.40540.02111.6858ELCT|-0.0097-0.01750.0064|-0.2228-0.39030.1814FS|0.8112|1.2320FE|0.3826|1.1970_cons|1.02461.00730.8625|8.65077.27554.7129-------------+------------------------------------N|132132132chi2|348.5497129.7370312.0903--------------------------------------------------legend:b/t-----------------------------------------------------------Variable|TECHCH_FCTECHCH_FSTECHCH_FE-------------+---------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-0.2988***-0.3105***-0.3039***|FC|0.0186Open|0.4845**0.4621**0.4574**FDI|-0.7255**-0.8216***-0.6454**Water|0.28800.32760.1635Nature|-0.0232-0.0214-0.0276Indus|0.31230.3599**0.4192*Hum|0.00600.00040.0188*ELCT|-0.0097-0.01750.0064FS|0.8112FE|0.3826_cons|1.0246***1.0073***0.8625***-------------+---------------------------------------------N|132132132chi2|348.5497129.7370312.0903-----------------------------------------------------------legend:*p<.1;**p<.05;***p<.01(2)系统GMM1.TFPCH_FCSystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===14311131313102.930.0000Numberofinstruments=176Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTFPCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-.1977973.0807648-2.450.014-.3560935-.0395012|FC|.0579153.02776192.090.037.003503.1123276Indus|.5096966.14326473.560.000.228903.7904903Hum|-.000322.0130933-0.020.980-.0259844.0253403Open|.2481802.12216842.030.042.0087346.4876258FDI|-.7418066.4682144-1.580.113-1.65949.1758768Water|-.0065067.0428129-0.150.879-.0904185.077405Nature|.0128979.04906780.260.793-.0832733.1090691ELCT|.014948.02317660.640.519-.0304773.0603732_cons|.9455529.16086235.880.000.63026871.260837------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TFPCHL(2/.).FCL(2/.).IndusL(2/.).HumStandard:D.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.TFPCHLD.FCLD.IndusLD.HumStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(166)Prob>chi2==159.08780.6361Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.80080.0051||2|-2.45460.0141|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation2.TFPCH_FSSystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===143111313131397.620.0000Numberofinstruments=176Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTFPCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-.2010307.0796379-2.520.012-.3571181-.0449433|FS|.8637168.18386344.700.000.50335121.224082Indus|.5986814.13148564.550.000.3409744.8563883Hum|-.0032455.0157617-0.210.837-.0341378.0276468Open|.2476867.13936131.780.076-.0254564.5208298FDI|-.8147854.4337028-1.880.060-1.664827.0352565Water|-.0301917.0468694-0.640.519-.1220541.0616707Nature|.0081474.05067560.160.872-.091175.1074698ELCT|.0145767.02449510.600.552-.0334328.0625862_cons|.9104615.18106515.030.000.55558041.265343------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TFPCHL(2/.).FSL(2/.).IndusL(2/.).HumStandard:D.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.TFPCHLD.FSLD.IndusLD.HumStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(166)Prob>chi2==158.07040.6575Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.73740.0062||2|-2.44220.0146|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation3.TFPCH_FESystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===14311131313279.530.0000Numberofinstruments=176Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTFPCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-.1964466.0789733-2.490.013-.3512313-.0416618|FE|.3140215.17817971.760.078-.0352044.6632474Indus|.4860649.17771642.740.006.1377471.8343828Hum|.0043747.02630770.170.868-.0471875.0559368Open|.2083601.12907071.610.106-.0446138.461334FDI|-.4051449.4114267-0.980.325-1.211526.4012365Water|-.1034405.0590438-1.750.080-.2191641.0122832Nature|.0167998.04828250.350.728-.0778322.1114318ELCT|.0516318.02284562.260.024.0068553.0964083_cons|.8874491.21104884.200.000.47380111.301097------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TFPCHL(2/.).FEL(2/.).IndusL(2/.).HumStandard:D.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.TFPCHLD.FELD.IndusLD.HumStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(166)Prob>chi2==167.27070.4577Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.73830.0062||2|-2.39160.0168|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation4.简单整理--------------------------------------------------Variable|TFPCH_FCTFPCH_FSTFPCH_FE-------------+------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-0.1978-0.2010-0.1964|-2.4491-2.5243-2.4875|FC|0.0579|2.0861Indus|0.50970.59870.4861|3.55774.55322.7351Hum|-0.0003-0.00320.0044|-0.0246-0.20590.1663Open|0.24820.24770.2084|2.03151.77731.6143FDI|-0.7418-0.8148-0.4051|-1.5843-1.8787-0.9847Water|-0.0065-0.0302-0.1034|-0.1520-0.6442-1.7519Nature|0.01290.00810.0168|0.26290.16080.3479ELCT|0.01490.01460.0516|0.64500.59512.2600FS|0.8637|4.6976FE|0.3140|1.7624_cons|0.94560.91050.8874|5.87805.02844.2049-------------+------------------------------------N|143143143chi2|102.92991397.6226279.5292--------------------------------------------------legend:b/t-----------------------------------------------------------Variable|TFPCH_FCTFPCH_FSTFPCH_FE-------------+---------------------------------------------TFPCH|L1.|-0.1978**-0.2010**-0.1964**|FC|0.0579**Indus|0.5097***0.5987***0.4861***Hum|-0.0003-0.00320.0044Open|0.2482**0.2477*0.2084FDI|-0.7418-0.8148*-0.4051Water|-0.0065-0.0302-0.1034*Nature|0.01290.00810.0168ELCT|0.01490.01460.0516**FS|0.8637***FE|0.3140*_cons|0.9456***0.9105***0.8874***-------------+---------------------------------------------N|143143143chi2|102.92991397.6226279.5292-----------------------------------------------------------legend:*p<.1;**p<.05;***p<.015.EFFCH_FCSystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===14311131313313.870.0000Numberofinstruments=84Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustEFFCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|.0291501.08989810.320.746-.1470469.2053471|FC|.0564877.02015262.800.005.0169894.0959861Open|-.0717067.1537055-0.470.641-.372964.2295506FDI|-.1494049.3033762-0.490.622-.7440113.4452015Water|.0313853.07993240.390.695-.1252794.18805Nature|-.0168155.0323787-0.520.604-.0802767.0466457Indus|.0534757.12868450.420.678-.1987413.3056928Hum|.001708.01576470.110.914-.0291902.0326062ELCT|-.0076386.0183017-0.420.676-.0435092.028232_cons|.9180002.060687815.130.000.79905431.036946------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).EFFCHStandard:D.FCD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.EFFCHStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(74)Prob>chi2==117.67890.0009Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.35250.0186||2|-1.07320.2832|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation6.EFFCH_FSSystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===1431113131339.580.0000Numberofinstruments=84Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustEFFCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|.0278344.08488420.330.743-.1385356.1942044|FS|.9798612.2947563.320.001.40215011.557572Open|-.1145469.1537371-0.750.456-.4158662.1867723FDI|-.148749.281413-0.530.597-.7003085.4028104Water|.1404467.06681152.100.036.0094987.2713948Nature|-.0182753.0332607-0.550.583-.0834652.0469145Indus|.121583.17556310.690.489-.2225145.4656804Hum|-.0026956.0149109-0.180.857-.0319203.0265292ELCT|-.0217153.0137567-1.580.114-.048678.0052474_cons|.8612272.058566714.710.000.7464386.9760158------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).EFFCHStandard:D.FSD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.EFFCHStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(74)Prob>chi2==114.49850.0018Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.37570.0175||2|-.744860.4564|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation7.EFFCH_FESystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===143111313134471.950.0000Numberofinstruments=84Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustEFFCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|.0153666.09055970.170.865-.1621272.1928603|FE|-.1134716.1626024-0.700.485-.4321665.2052233Open|-.0634816.1636907-0.390.698-.3843095.2573464FDI|.0530592.27168610.200.845-.4794359.5855542Water|.0021395.07749640.030.978-.1497506.1540296Nature|-.019725.0320697-0.620.539-.0825804.0431304Indus|.081254.15311750.530.596-.2188508.3813588Hum|.0087128.02014350.430.665-.0307677.0481933ELCT|-.0046364.0199504-0.230.816-.0437385.0344657_cons|.9148364.08474710.790.000.74873541.080937------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).EFFCHStandard:D.FED.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.EFFCHStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(74)Prob>chi2==123.47860.0003Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.35380.0186||2|-1.18060.2378|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation8.简单整理--------------------------------------------------Variable|EFFCH_FCEFFCH_FSEFFCH_FE-------------+------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|0.02920.02780.0154|0.32430.32790.1697|FC|0.0565|2.8030Open|-0.0717-0.1145-0.0635|-0.4665-0.7451-0.3878FDI|-0.1494-0.14870.0531|-0.4925-0.52860.1953Water|0.03140.14040.0021|0.39262.10210.0276Nature|-0.0168-0.0183-0.0197|-0.5193-0.5495-0.6151Indus|0.05350.12160.0813|0.41560.69250.5307Hum|0.0017-0.00270.0087|0.1083-0.18080.4325ELCT|-0.0076-0.0217-0.0046|-0.4174-1.5785-0.2324FS|0.9799|3.3243FE|-0.1135|-0.6978_cons|0.91800.86120.9148|15.126614.705110.7949-------------+------------------------------------N|143143143chi2|313.874339.57654471.9504--------------------------------------------------legend:b/t-----------------------------------------------------------Variable|EFFCH_FCEFFCH_FSEFFCH_FE-------------+---------------------------------------------EFFCH|L1.|0.02920.02780.0154|FC|0.0565***Open|-0.0717-0.1145-0.0635FDI|-0.1494-0.14870.0531Water|0.03140.1404**0.0021Nature|-0.0168-0.0183-0.0197Indus|0.05350.12160.0813Hum|0.0017-0.00270.0087ELCT|-0.0076-0.0217-0.0046FS|0.9799***FE|-0.1135_cons|0.9180***0.8612***0.9148***-------------+---------------------------------------------N|143143143chi2|313.874339.57654471.9504-----------------------------------------------------------legend:*p<.1;**p<.05;***p<.019.TECHCH_FCSystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===14311131313369.990.0000Numberofinstruments=98Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTECHCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-.1700812.0918292-1.850.064-.3500631.0099007|FC|.0158608.05042130.310.753-.0829631.1146847Open|.2566015.16582941.550.122-.0684182.5816211FDI|-.1428415.4345185-0.330.742-.994482.708799Water|-.0641868.0429605-1.490.135-.1483878.0200142Nature|.0089923.0383550.230.815-.0661821.0841666Indus|.5236256.16682393.140.002.1966567.8505945Hum|.0053394.01236760.430.666-.0189006.0295794ELCT|.0259888.01778071.460.144-.0088607.0608383_cons|.8871884.1535645.780.000.58620851.188168------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TECHCHStandard:D.FCD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.TECHCHStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(88)Prob>chi2==110.35260.0538Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.87870.0040||2|-2.96890.0030|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation10.TECHCH_FSSystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===14311131313620.950.0000Numberofinstruments=98Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTECHCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-.1773243.0884603-2.000.045-.3507033-.0039453|FS|.5869065.50394491.160.244-.40080731.57462Open|.2198859.17185311.280.201-.1169401.5567118FDI|-.1919553.4385458-0.440.662-1.051489.6675788Water|-.0640317.0439771-1.460.145-.1502252.0221618Nature|.009494.04121910.230.818-.071294.090282Indus|.5640501.11376264.960.000.3410795.7870207Hum|-.0007963.0156335-0.050.959-.0314374.0298448ELCT|.026539.01937151.370.171-.0114285.0645066_cons|.8931552.14734766.060.000.60435921.181951------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TECHCHStandard:D.FSD.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.TECHCHStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(88)Prob>chi2==110.19690.0549Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.83650.0046||2|-3.01210.0026|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation11.TECHCH_FESystemdynamicpanel-dataestimationGroupvariable:idTimevariable:yearNumberofobsNumberofgroupsObspergroup:==min=avg=max===14311131313400.100.0000Numberofinstruments=98Waldchi2(9)Prob>chi2One-stepresults------------------------------------------------------------------------------|RobustTECHCH|Coef.Std.Err.zP>|z|[95%Conf.Interval]-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-.1704021.0900388-1.890.058-.3468748.0060706|FE|.2141572.28895420.740.459-.3521826.7804969Open|.2484153.15704841.580.114-.0593939.5562245FDI|-.0007193.5071937-0.000.999-.9948007.9933621Water|-.0892397.051658-1.730.084-.1904876.0120082Nature|.0013011.04004140.030.974-.0771786.0797808Indus|.6252087.20610773.030.002.2212451.029172Hum|.0049007.01146690.430.669-.0175739.0273753ELCT|.0353937.01951041.810.070-.0028459.0736333_cons|.8154018.18830214.330.000.44633641.184467------------------------------------------------------------------------------InstrumentsfordifferencedequationGMM-type:L(2/.).TECHCHStandard:D.FED.OpenD.FDID.WaterD.NatureD.IndusD.HumD.ELCTInstrumentsforlevelequationGMM-type:LD.TECHCHStandard:_consSargantestofoveridentifyingrestrictionsH0:overidentifyingrestrictionsarevalidchi2(88)Prob>chi2==111.95820.0433Arellano-Bondtestforzeroautocorrelationinfirst-differencederrors+-----------------------+|Order|zProb>z||------+----------------||1|-2.84060.0045||2|-2.95290.0031|+-----------------------+H0:noautocorrelation12.简单整理--------------------------------------------------Variable|TECHCH_FCTECHCH_FSTECHCH_FE-------------+------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-0.1701-0.1773-0.1704|-1.8521-2.0046-1.8925|FC|0.0159|0.3146Open|0.25660.21990.2484|1.54741.27951.5818FDI|-0.1428-0.1920-0.0007|-0.3287-0.4377-0.0014Water|-0.0642-0.0640-0.0892|-1.4941-1.4560-1.7275Nature|0.00900.00950.0013|0.23440.23030.0325Indus|0.52360.56410.6252|3.13884.95813.0334Hum|0.0053-0.00080.0049|0.4317-0.05090.4274ELCT|0.02600.02650.0354|1.46161.37001.8141FS|0.5869|1.1646FE|0.2142|0.7411_cons|0.88720.89320.8154|5.77736.06164.3303-------------+------------------------------------N|143143143chi2|369.9923620.9527400.1010--------------------------------------------------legend:b/t-----------------------------------------------------------Variable|TECHCH_FCTECHCH_FSTECHCH_FE-------------+---------------------------------------------TECHCH|L1.|-0.1701*-0.1773**-0.1704*|FC|0.0159Open|0.25660.21990.2484FDI|-0.1428-0.1920-0.0007Water|-0.0642-0.0640-0.0892*Nature|0.00900.00950.0013Indus|0.5236***0.5641***0.6252***Hum|0.0053-0.00080.0049ELCT|0.02600.02650.0354*FS|0.5869FE|0.2142_cons|0.8872***0.8932***0.8154***-------------+---------------------------------------------N|143143143chi2|369.9923620.9527400.1010-----------------------------------------------------------legend:*p<.1;**p<.05;***p<.01
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